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November 2019
November 6th 2019
REPORTED GROWTH BUT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
2018 GDP had performed slower if compared to 2017, 7.2% versus 8.2%. Also 2019 forecast isn’t achieving 2017 results with 6.8%. 2020 GDP is forecasted to grow but very slow at 7.0%.
India strengths are represented by diversified drivers, a good level of saving and investments, an efficient private sector represented by services and a quite low level of external debts with good foreign exchange reserve. But on the opposite side, India is showing high corporate debt, importer of energy resources, lack of infrastructure, bureaucracy and political turmoil.
Domestic consumption is low, only 60% of GDP affecting overall economic results. Also investments declines with a negative impact on market labor with increase of unemployment with the higher results in the last 45 years. Positively, inflation level at 5% as forecasted by Central Bank due to weaker energy and food prices.
New Modi government is concentrated to increase employment, investments in private sectors and stimulate private consumptions. Indian Banks are is a tough period, due to scandals in 2018 and 2019 and involved by reforms to cleaning up the banking system.
Exports have slowed but imports are increasing thanks to stimulus measures to boost domestic demand. Increasing demand for gold after demonetisation has an important role in driving imports and at the same time rupees is still subject to depreciation.
From political point of view, Kashmir remains a source of tension between India and Pakistan after suspensions of diplomatic talks in 2016, even if both sides have interest in preserving status quo.
Source: COFACE
To know more about India: Clieck here
India is the 11th largest importer in the world, even if last five years reported a decrease.
India is 17th largest exporter in the world, and in the last five years the exports have increased.
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