• Analysis and Studies
• Tajikistan: a look at the market

Historically, Tajikistan has been influenced by several empires, including the Persian Empire, the Greek Empire under Alexander the Great, and the Mongol Empire. In the 19th century, the region was incorporated into the Russian Empire and later became part of the Soviet Union, and following the Soviet Union's dissolution in 1991, Tajikistan gained its independence. Politically, the country is a republic with a strong presidential system, and Emomali Rahmon has been the president since 1992, making him one of the longest-serving leaders in the post-Soviet world.

Culturally, Tajikistan has deep Persian influences, with the majority of the population being ethnic Tajiks who speak a dialect of Persian, and Sunni Islam is the predominant religion. The country has a rich cultural heritage, with traditional music, dance, and literature playing important roles in society. However, despite this cultural richness, Tajikistan faces challenges such as political instability, economic difficulties, and security issues, particularly due to its proximity to Afghanistan.

The flag consists in three horizontal stripes in red, white and green, with a gold crown surmounted by seven gold, five-pointed stars in the center of the white stripe: red represents the sun, victory, and the unity of the nation, white stands for purity, cotton, and mountain snows, and green signifies Islam and the bounty of nature. The crown symbolizes the Tajik people, while the seven stars signify the Tajik cultural belief in the magic number seven, symbolizing perfection and happiness.

“Tajikistan” means “Land of the Tajik[people]”: with "-stan" being a Persian suffix meaning "place of" or "country”. The capital, Dushanbe, derives its name from the Persian word for Monday, as the city was originally at the crossroads where a large bazaar occurred on Mondays, making it the "second day" after Saturday, or "du-shambe."

Tajikistan has a high level of specialization in Antimony ($111M), Precious Metal Ore ($249M), Lead Ore ($117M), Zinc Ore ($143M), and Raw Cotton ($212M).

In 2022, Tajikistan was the 142^nd in total exports with a trade of $2.41B, the number 135^th in total imports with a trade of $6.57B.

 In 2022 the most exported product of Tajikistan was Gold, with a trade of $644M, ahead of Precious Metal Ore ($249M), Raw Cotton ($212M), Copper Ore ($203M), and Raw Aluminium ($174M), with Kazakhstan being the most significant destination (20.2%), Switzerland (18.7%), China (16.8%), Turkey (7.84%), and Uzbekistan (7.5%).

 We can observe that the country's export dynamics are driven by strong sectoral connections with specific countries, with gold leading as the top export. Precious metal ore is heavily dependent on China, while raw cotton presents a more diversified market, primarily in Iran and Turkey.

Copper ore exports are almost entirely reliant on Kazakhstan, showing a significant regional partnership, whereas raw aluminium is mainly directed to Turkey, with smaller shares going to other countries. The economy's reliance on key sectors like gold and copper, coupled with concentrated trade relationships, underscores the need for diversification to reduce vulnerability to geopolitical and economic shifts.

1. Gold (26.8%): 60.9% Switzerland, 23.9% China, 15.1% Hong Kong
2. Precious Metal Ore (10.3%): 82.6% China, 17% Singapore
3. Raw Cotton (8.82%): 52.4% Iran, 17.5% Turkey, 8.21% Uzbekistan, 7.44% China, 7.31% Russia, 3.47% Latvia,
4. Copper Ore (8.43%): 99% Kazakhstan, 0.95% Russia
5. Raw Aluminium (7.22%): 70% Turkey, 9.84% Tajikistan, 9.31% British Virgin Islands, 8.46% Uzbekistan, 1.85% Italy

Whereas the most imported product was Refined Petroleum, with a trade of $625M, followed by Wheat ($312M), Cars ($203M), Petroleum Gas ($161M), and Raw Iron Bars ($143M), importing mostly from China (32.8%), Russia (22.2%), Kazakhstan (13.4%), Uzbekistan (6.29%), and Turkey (6%).

The graphic shows a strong dependence on regional partners, with Russia supplying the vast majority of refined petroleum and Kazakhstan being the primary source of wheat and petroleum gas: this concentration of imports from a few key countries presents risks if there are changes in these partners' economic or political landscapes.

However, Tajikistan’s car imports are more diversified, sourced from countries like South Korea, Lithuania, and Japan, indicating some resilience in this sector. Similarly, raw iron bar imports are spread across several regional partners, providing a degree of protection against supply disruptions. Overall, while there is some diversification, Tajikistan’s heavy reliance on specific countries for essential imports underscores the need to explore broader trade relationships to enhance economic stability.

1. Refined Petroleum (9.5%): 84.9% Russia, 6.14% Turkmenistan, 3.46% Belarus,1.66% Kazakhstan, 1.07% Uzbekistan, 0.48% Germany
2. Wheat (4.74%): 99.4% Kazakhstan
3. Cars (3.08%): 6% South Korea, 14.1% Lithuania, 13% Japan, 8.7% United Arab Emirates, 5.73% China, 4.76% Russia, 4.59% United States
4. Petroleum Gas (2.45%): 68.2% Kazakhstan, 22.9% Uzbekistan, 8.58% Russia
5. Raw Iron Bars (2.17%): 53% Kazakhstan, 21.7% Russia, 14.7% Iran, 6.15% Uzbekistan, 2.67% China, 1.7% Belarus

Between 2021 and 2022 the fastest growing exporter was China, with an increase of $245M, followed by Kazakhstan ($125M) and Iran ($75.4M).

1. China: from $159M to $404M
2. Kazakhstan: from $361M to $486M
3. Iran: from $39M to $114M

China was also the country which grew the fastest in imports, with an increase of $558M, ahead of Russia ($300M) and Turkey ($120M).

1. China: from $1.6B to $2.15B
2. Russia: from $1.16B to $1.46B
3. Turkey: from $275M to $395M

Sources: 

https://oec.world/en

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/